What We Know

Technology Expands Exponentially- Bill Joy certainly has enough ethos to make his argument convincing. Not only is he one of the nation’s (if not the world’s) leading technological scientists. Furthermore, his reputation is earned as the result of a very intimate and working knowledge of the very types of technologies that he is speaking of. Because of his life-long work with technology, his obvious observation of its evolution, and because of the reputation of his colleagues, Joy’s argument has to be taken not only seriously, but also granted a great deal of validity.

Understanding that Joy’s knowledge of this topic is potent and that his points have merit, we must examine his argument based on these factors. It would be fairly hard to find flaw in Moore’s theory of exponential growth, given that Joy himself could not find a break in its accuracy. Therefore, for the purposes of analysis, we must assume (as Joy did) that in a free market, technology will continue to expand and evolve exponentially. How then, will this relate to the seemingly “Doomsday” scenario that Joy so darkly presents? Are we to assume that the scientists working on the GNR technologies of today have anymore ethical or logical (see Logos) reasons to stem their work than the great minds that worked on the Manhattan Project? If Bill Joy doesn’t think so, then its hard to imagine ourselves forming a contrary opinion. Much of the scientific advancement today seems to be virtually uncaring of the public’s opinion. Why then are we to assume any change of heart will come?

There is, however, room to make comment against Bill Joy, despite his reputation and knowledge. That room is in the human ability to make predictions. Bill Joy cannot tell the future any better than the next person, and much of his fears lie in “uncharted waters”, so to speak. If Joy’s predictions of genetic engineering, nanotech, and robitics prove fruitless, then his argument loses its punch. Even if the science of today progresses into tomorrow without heed to the fate of humanity, it may never create that which will destroy itself. If it does, however, Joy’s learned warnings may come to be truer than even he expects.

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